Fertility Levels and Trends in Zimbabwe

IN THIS ARTICLE I attempt to establish the fertility level in Zimbabwe for the years 1982-4. In view of the inaccuracy of recorded data from censuses and surveys several methods of estimation are used. This period was chosen because a census was taken in 1982 (Central Statistical Office, 1985) and a reproductive health survey was conducted in 1984 (Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council, 1985). The data from this period can be compared with those from 1969, when a population census was taken (Central Statistical Office, 1969), with those from 1987 when an intercensal demographic survey was conducted (Central Statistical Office, 1991), and with those from 1988 when a demographic health survey was undertaken (Central Statistical Office, 1989). I then consider fertility trends over a 20year period (1969-88). Empirical analysis is based on the 1982 ten per cent sample (Central Statistical Office, 1985) and data from the Zimbabwe Reproductive Health Survey, 1984 (Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council, 1985). There is evidence that fertility declined between the 1969 population census and 1984. If the data recorded in the 1987 intercensal demographic survey (Central Statistical Office, 1991) and the 1988 demographic health survey are correct, this decline seems to have continued up to 1988. Such a decline may be the result of an increased use of modern methods of contraception. However, little can be said about the magnitude and the timing of the decline until further research is undertaken.